From Tuesday the 26th of August till Tuesday the 9th of September 2014, the second Sinquefield Cup will take place at the STL Chess Club & Scholastic Center in St. Louis, Missouri. The tournament is named after Rex Sinquefield, founder of the STL Chess Club & Scholastic Center, and one of the people that was on Garry Kasparov’s ticket for the FIDE Presidential Elections that were held earlier this August during the Chess Olympiad in Tromso, Norway.

Whereas last year’s tournament had only four participants (Magnus Carlsen, Levon Aronian, Hikaru Nakamura and Gata Kamsky), this year’s edition has six participants:

As IGM Yasser Seirawan remarked during a recent training session, it is going to be the strongest event in the history of chess with an average rating of 2802(!), putting the tournament in the unprecedented category of 23! Seirawan also remarked that no single player of Russian origin is playing, hinting at the rise of international chess. Maybe we will live to see the days of a Russia against the Rest Of The World chess match again sometime? It must be said that initially Sergey Karjakin was invited, but was replaced – apparently due to visa troubles – by goalgetter Maxime Vachier-Lagrave from France.

The Question

Can anybody beat Magnus Carlsen this time around? In the world of chess he has done it all and has become everyting, well… allmost everything:

• Classical World Champion
• Rapid World Champion
• Blitz World Champion
• No. 1 rated player in the world (classical)
• No. 1 rated player in the world (blitz)
• No. 2 rated player in the world (rapid) – Caruana is the current no. 1
• Holder of the highest official FIDE ELO rating ever (2882) in the history of classical chess

To try and answer the question I will take a look at all of Magnus’ opponents, the individuals scores they have with him and the very last encounters, all in classical chess.

Opponent No. 1: Magnus Carlsen(!)

Yes, I believe that Magnus may end up beating himself… As history has shown and as indicated by the current ratings, there is nobody that is objectively superior to Magnus in any chess technical, psychological or physical sense. The problem for Magnus may lie in his motivation. Apart from money, what is there to play for? And if there is anything, how to do it? During his speech at the World Rapid and Blitz championships earlier this year, he stated that he is planning to stay at the top for a very long time to come. But how to do that? He can stay at the top by just doing what he has been doing for many years, playing deep and solid, almost error-free chess. But that may no longer be inspiring or challenging for him anymore. Of late it seems that Magnus may be burdened with two issues:

1. how to get to that magical rating limit of 2900?
2. how to beat everybody that is weaker than me (which is everybody) in order not to lose rating points, and also because I am supposed to?

His performance at the recent chess Olympiad in Tromso has shown us some indications. He lost with white to Arkady Naiditsch (Germany) and with Black from Ivan Saric (Croatioa). In both cases it was generally accepted that Magnus pushed his luck a bit too much in order to reach sharp struggles and win both games. Most notable was his loss against Saric in which Magnus dubiously sacrificed no less then two pawns in the opening for clearly insufficient compensation. A strong grandmaster as Saric was up to task and finished Magnus off quite easily. Maybe it was part of a team strategy that Magnus would play like that, but I find it hard to believe. Let’s take a look at the game.

Click on the moves below to start playing and show a chess board:

[pgn_compat]
[Event “Chess Olympiad”]
[Site “Tromso NOR”]
[Date “2014.08.12”]
[Round “10.3”]
[White “Ivan Saric”]
[Black “Magnus Carlsen”]
[Result “1-0”]
[ECO “C61”]
[WhiteElo “2671”]
[BlackElo “2877”]
[Annotator “Waldemar Moes, Better Your Chess”]
[PlyCount “73”]
[EventDate “2014.08.02”]
[SourceDate “2014.04.06”]
1. e4 e5 {Magnus rarely plays anything else then this solid classical move. If
he wants to play for the win he may also consider taking up the Sicilian?} 2.
Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 Nd4 $6 {A rare guest in tournament practice, but to leave the
well trodden opening paths quickly is one of Magnus’ hallmarks.} 4. Nxd4 exd4
5. Bc4 $6 {Saric sidesteps a future c6, but that is not necessarily a good
move and moving the same piece twice in the opening is “against the rules”.
Maybe he also wanted to get Magnus out of his specific preparation for this
game.} (5. O-O) 5… Nf6 6. O-O d5 {In a sense this is a pawn sacrifice, it is
not easy to see how Black is going to regain this pawn in the near future and
keep a decent position.} (6… Nxe4 {was an interesting try to reach an
imbalanced position with mutual chances:} 7. Bxf7+ (7. Re1 d5 {and Black may
already be more comfortable.}) 7… Kxf7 8. Qh5+ g6 9. Qd5+ Kg7 10. Qxe4 Qf6
$10) 7. exd5 Be7 {Before recapturing the pawn on d5, Magnus wants to bring his
king in safety.} (7… Nxd5 8. Qh5 c6 9. Qe5+ $14) 8. Qf3 {But Saric starts to
“sit” on the pawn!} Bg4 $6 {It is very hard to see, but this move order is
probably inaccurate.} ({More logical was to bring the king in safety first:}
8… O-O 9. d3 (9. h3 {to prevent Bg4 is too reactive and does not come with
tempo as in the game.} Rb8 {with the idea of b5.}) 9… Bg4 10. Qf4 Qd7 {with
the ideas of Bd6 and b5, with counterplay.} 11. h3 Bd6 12. Qxd4 c5 13. Qe3 Rae8
{and since Black has a fully developed position he has sufficient compensation for the
two-pawn deficit.}) 9. Qf4 O-O 10. h3 $1 {This is the difference, White
immediately hits the bishop back!} Bd6 11. Qxd4 {And that is pawn no. 2…} c5
{here the situation is slighty different compared to the line above: the queen is not on d7 yet and the black rooks are not connected. Also the white queen can now retreat to d3 and
not be hit by a black rook on the e-file!} (11… Be6) 12. Qd3 Bh5 $6 {Gotta
move that bishop… But this may not be the safest side of the board.} (12…
Bd7 {This sad retreat was probably the best.}) 13. Nc3 {A good and human move
trying to finish development and saying to Black: I may chase or trap your
bishop later, I will always have an enormous advantage with my two extra pawns,
what are you going to do about it?} ({More incisive was the concrete:} 13. f4
$1 {threatening g4 and f5 trapping the bishop.}) 13… Re8 $2 {The only good
thing about Magnus’ position is his lead in development (note Ra1 and Bc1),
and he tries to use it. But somehow this rook move is not concrete enough and
shoots into “thin air”.} (13… a6 {Black must use his temporary advantage in activity to take aim at some White targets, most notable Bc4, Qd3 and d5.} 14. a4 Qa5 {pinning the
a-pawn and threatening b5. This could keep White’s advantage at bay.}) 14. f4
$16 {Saric goes for it. Now Magnus constantly has to reckon with g4 and f5.} a6
15. a4 {White must still tread carefully!} (15. g4 $6 Bg6 16. f5 $6 Nxg4 17.
fxg6 (17. hxg4 $4 Qh4 $19 {and all of a sudden White is confrontated with an
airy fairy king side as well as an underdeveloped queen side.}) 17… fxg6 18.
Ne4 (18. hxg4 $4 Qh4 $19) 18… Qh4 19. Nxd6 Re3 $3 20. Qxe3 Nxe3 21. dxe3 Qg3+
22. Kh1 Qxh3+ {and the game is drawn!}) 15… Qd7 {Strictly speaking, only now,
by giving his queen a function and connecting the rooks, has Black finished
the opening ;-)} 16. Qg3 $1 {To improve the queen, defend the king side, free
up the d-pawn and develop Bc1.} Ne4 $1 {Magnus must act before White
consolidates even more and wins the game easily.} 17. Nxe4 Rxe4 18. b3 (18. d3 {
looks more natural, attacking Re4 with tempo, opening up Bc1 and defending f4.
Maybe Saric was afraid of a black piece coming into e2?}) 18… Qc7 {
Threatening f4.} ({Not:} 18… Rae8 $4 19. Bd3 $1 R4e7 20. Qh4 Bg6 21. f5 $18)
19. d3 Re2 $2 {The losing move, Black does get a rook on the 2nd, but it was
better to reserve this square for the bishop that is about to be chased.} (
19… Re7 {was safest, but it is clear that Black’s “initiative” is thwarted.}
20. Qg5 Be2 21. Re1 $16) 20. Qg5 $18 {Now White is winning.} g6 (20… Bg6 21.
f5 Re5 22. Bb2 f6 23. Qg4 {and Black loses more material.}) 21. Bb2 {Threatens
the horribly strong Qf6.} (21. g4 $1) 21… Be7 (21… Rxc2 22. Qf6 Rxb2 23.
Qxb2 Bf8 {was another way to grovel on.}) 22. Bf6 {The human move, and
sufficient for the win.} (22. d6 $1 {During the game the live commentary panel
went crazy because their computer indicated that now this surprising move was
possible. The main line runs:} Qxd6 23. Qe5 $3 Rxe5 24. Bxf7+ Kf8 25. fxe5 {
and surprisingly Black has no decent way out:} Qc7 26. Bxg6+ Kg8 27. Bxh5 $18 {
but Saric was never going to gamble this one.}) 22… h6 {Magnus kicks but to
no avail.} 23. Be5 {A cool counterattack by Ivan.} (23. Qh4) 23… Qd8 24. Qxh6
{and Saric went on to win this game without too much difficulties.} Rxe5 25. d6
Re2 26. dxe7 Qxe7 27. f5 Qh4 28. Qf4 g5 29. Qxh4 gxh4 30. Rf4 Rxc2 31. Rxh4 Be2
32. Re4 Rd2 33. Re7 Bxd3 34. Bxf7+ Kf8 35. f6 Rd8 36. Bh5 Kg8 37. Re8+ 1-0
[/pgn_compat]

Had Carlsen played a solid Ruy Lopez Morphy defense (3…a6) or Berlin defense (3…Nf6), I find it hard to believe that he would have lost to Saric. Of course he could have blundered a pawn as he did against Caruana during the Gashimov Memorial earlier this year, but that is another type of ball game compared to the game above.  If we have to point out a weakness in Carlsen’s play it would have to be that he sometimes just goes to far in trying to beat his weaker opponents by playing slighty off-beat and dubious openings as well as having difficulty to navigate the ensuing complications, especially when having to keep certain vague winning chances alive. So, in my opinion he could well be his own worst opponent.

Drama

Having said that, I want to finish this first part of the preview with the amazing stunt that Magnus pulled last year when he won the first Sinquefield Cup. What excitement that was! Having defended a pawn down position against Aronian for many hours, Magnus turns down Levon’s draw offer (which would have sufficed for first place and a $70,000.=  price), only to turn the game around and even win it! Take a look at the video below and see the drama unfold! Aronian offers a draw at 6:40 into the video, but resigns at 13:02!

To be continued…