In a previous article Previewing The Sinquefield Cup (4): Can Nakamura Beat Carlsen?, I discussed the likelyhood of Nakamura beating Carlsen during the upcoming Sinquefield Cup. In this follow-up I want to take a look at the number five on the starting list, Veselin Topalov.

Statistics

In the database I found 17 encounters in classical chess between Magnus Carlsen and Veselin Topalov. In the overall head to head Topalov is the underdog, sofar he scores only 35,3%. He has however beaten Carlsen in a classical game three times, whereas Carlsen has beaten Topalov  eight times. They drew 6 times.

Last Encounter

The last encounter in a classical game between the two was during the Norway Chess tournament earlier this year. I will annotate the game below.

Click on the moves below to start playing and show a chess board:

[pgn_compat]
[Event “Norway Chess 2nd”]
[Site “Stavanger”]
[Date “2014.06.07”]
[Round “4”]
[White “Topalov, Veselin”]
[Black “Carlsen, Magnus”]
[Result “1/2-1/2”]
[ECO “D38”]
[WhiteElo “2772”]
[BlackElo “2881”]
[Annotator “Waldemar Moes, Better Your Chess”]
[PlyCount “55”]
[EventDate “2014.06.03”]
[EventType “tourn”]
[EventRounds “9”]
[EventCountry “NOR”]
[EventCategory “21”]
[SourceDate “2014.06.18”]

1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. Nf3 d5 5. cxd5 exd5 6. Bg5 h6 {We have
entered the realms of the Ragozin defense.} 7. Bh4 c5 {This move intends to
trade a flank pawn for a white center pawn and also opens up a diagonal for
Qd8.} 8. dxc5 Nbd7 9. e3 Qa5 {This move unpins Nf6 and threatens Ne4.} 10. Nd2
{Unpinning Nc3 and against Ne4} (10. Rc1 Ne4 11. Qxd5 Nxc3 12. bxc3 Bxc3+ 13.
Kd1 {etc. is possible for White, but not to everyone’s liking.}) 10… Bxc3 {
Black takes on c3 to shatter White’s pawn structure before White plays Rc1 and
can recapture on c3 with the rook.} 11. bxc3 Qxc5 {Black regains his pawn.} 12.
Rc1 {And White defends the weakling on c3.} O-O 13. Be2 Qa3 $5 {Magnus
introduces some spice yet again! Normal moves aiming to finish the development
are:} (13… b6) (13… Re8) (13… Ne4 $6 {This try opens up the position too
much.} 14. Nxe4 dxe4 15. O-O Nb6 (15… Ne5 16. Qd4 $14) 16. Qd4 $14) 14. O-O
$5 {With his king safe Topalov does not mind giving a pawn for the initiative.}
(14. Qc2 $6 {is very timid} b6 $10) 14… Qxa2 {And Magnus now consistently
goes for it, what better way to imbalance the game?} 15. c4 $1 $14 {Designed
to make the white pieces spring to life. White has the initiative and in the
future Black will have to safeguard his queen as well as try to finish the
development.} Ne4 $1 {This counterattack on Nd2 is now best. Black wants to
trade pieces after which in the long run his pawns on the queen side become
forces to reckon with. Also, the less pieces, the less White can harass
Black’s queen or otherwise undeveloped position.} ({Naturally Black does not
oblige with:} 15… dxc4 $2 16. Nxc4 $16 {which would already threaten Ra1
winning the queen. Note how the white piece constellation takes away all but
one square from the black queen.}) 16. Nxe4 dxe4 {OK, what should be White’s
plan now? Normally the side with the bishop pair should device a plan
involving the squares complex for which the opponent does not have a bishop,
in this case the dark squares. It would be nice for him to transfer his bishop
from h4 to d4 from where it would aim at all four corners of the board! Most
notably it would attack Black’s king side and defend against Black’s passed
a-pawn.} 17. Be7 {White indeed tries to implement an improvement plan for this
bishop.} (17. Bg3 {was another try to get to d4 in the end.}) 17… Re8 18. Bd6
Nf6 {It is often give and take in chess, now this deployment is possible,
White can no longer double Black’s pawns with Bh4xf6. Bobby Fischer used to
say: “In order to gain a square, you have to give up a square”. The reverse is
also true, c5 has now become available for White’s bishop.} (18… b6 $2 19.
Qd5 $16 {and the dark squared bishop makes it’s influence felt.}) 19. Ra1 $1 {
The rook nudges the queen away and also takes aim at a7 which is on a dark
square(!).} ({To hasty would be:} 19. Bc5 $6 Qa5 20. Bd4 Qg5 $10 {allows for a
nice redeployment of the black queen. From here she defends her own king side
and counterattacks White’s.}) 19… Qb2 $8 20. c5 $6 {Though not without sting,
this move seems to concede any advantage White had left. Maybe Topalov never
considered transfering the bishop to d4 in the first place? The text move
enhances the mobility of Be2 and stifles b7.} (20. Bc5 {threatening Bd4 with a
large advantage would have been consequent and probably the only try for an
advantage:} Qe5 (20… a5 {trying to hang on to the pawn} 21. Bd4 {we have
arrived!} Qb4 $8 22. Qc2 $36 {and White is threatening a very strong
initiative with c4-c5 and Rfb1 etc.} (22. c5 $2 {too early} a4 23. Qc2 Be6 24.
Rfb1 Bb3 $10 {just in time!}) 22… a4 23. Rfb1 Qa5 24. Rb5 $14) 21. Bxa7 {not
a bad pawn to eliminate!} Qg5 {and Black has managed to redeploy the queen,
but at the cost of his passed a-pawn. The black queen would likely get spanked
for such naughty excursions!} 22. Re1 {sidestepping …Bh3 and White retains a
tiny edge.}) 20… a5 {Funny, Carlsen says: my rook on a8 is already developed,
it is supporting my passed pawn so I don’t have to move my bishop to free up
the rook. A bishop which by the way is on an open diagonal already.} (20… Rd8
{with the idea of Ne8 and sidestepping any Bb5’s.}) 21. Rb1 Qa2 $8 {Now Black
always has e6 as a retreat.} (21… Qc3 $4 22. Rb3 $18) (21… Qa3 $4 22. Qd4
$18 {Controlling c3 and the threat of Ra1 is decisive.}) 22. Bb5 Rd8 23. Qc1 {
Threatening Bc4 with advantage.} Qe6 {Too late, the bird has flown.} (23… Be6
{was also possible.}) 24. Bc7 {With a4 in the air and Bd6 being vulnerable to
attack, Topalov decides to take a draw.} Rf8 25. Bd6 Rd8 26. Bc7 Rf8 27. Bd6
Rd8 28. Bc7 {Draw agreed. Not a very entertaining game and an easy draw for
Carlsen.} 1/2-1/2
[/pgn_compat]

Considering their head to head count and the way their last encounter went, I don’t think it is likely that the Bulgarian is going to be a serious threat yet to Carlsen during the Sinquefield Cup.

To be continued…