In a previous article Previewing The Sinquefield Cup (2): Can Aronian Beat Carlsen?, I discussed the likelyhood of Aronian beating Carlsen during the upcoming Sinquefield Cup. In this follow-up I want to take a look at the number three on the starting list, Fabiano Caruana.

Statistics

In the database I found 14 encounters in classical chess between Magnus Carlsen and Fabiano Caruana. In the overall head to head Caruana is somewhat the underdog, sofar he scores 42,9%. In 2014 he has been doing less succesfull, out of 5 games he scores 30%. To add to that: stemming from real fights, Carlsen’s wins were chess technically more impressive when compared to Fabiano’s one win in which Carlsen blundered a pawn in quite a silly way, even though Caruana showed good technique in that game to win it.

Last Encounter

The last encounter in a classical game between the two was during the Olympiad in Tromso earlier this year. I will annotate the game below.

Click on the moves below to start playing and show a chess board:

[pgn_compat]
[Event “Tromsoe ol (Men) 41st”]
[Site “Tromsoe”]
[Date “2014.08.08”]
[Round “6.1”]
[White “Caruana, Fabiano”]
[Black “Carlsen, Magnus”]
[Result “0-1”]
[ECO “B01”]
[WhiteElo “2801”]
[BlackElo “2877”]
[Annotator “Waldemar Moes, Better Your Chess”]
[PlyCount “100”]
[EventDate “2014.08.02”]
[EventType “team-swiss”]
[EventRounds “11”]
[EventCountry “NOR”]
[SourceDate “2014.08.20”]
[WhiteTeam “Italy”]
[BlackTeam “Norway”]
[WhiteTeamCountry “ITA”]
[BlackTeamCountry “NOR”]

1. e4 d5 2. exd5 Qxd5 3. Nc3 Qd8 $6 (3… Qa5 4. d4 Nf6 5. Nf3 Bg4 6. h3 Bh5 7.
g4 Bg6 8. Ne5 e6 (8… Nbd7 9. Nxg6 hxg6 10. g5 $2 Nd5 $10 {And here to as
opposed to the game, Qa5 helps control d5!}) 9. Bg2 c6 10. h4 Be4 {This is the
difference with the game, Qa5 helps to control e4!}) 4. d4 Nf6 5. Nf3 Bg4 6. h3
Bxf3 {These situations always intrigue me.} (6… Bh5 $2 {In this particular
situation, due to the queen on d8, Black’s position is not ready for this
classical approach of keeping the bishops.} 7. g4 Bg6 8. Ne5 e6 (8… Nbd7 9.
Nxg6 hxg6 10. g5 Nh5 {the d5 square is not available…} 11. d5 $16) 9. Bg2 c6
$2 10. h4 Bb4 {desperately trying to control e4 so the bishop can retreat to
it.} 11. O-O {unpinning} Bxc3 {removing the defender} 12. bxc3 {but it turns
out that Bg6 is in box anyway:} Qa5 {seems best:} (12… Nbd7 $2 13. Qe2 $1 $18
{avoiding the exchange of queens and keeping an eye on all the retreat squares
of Bg6. The threat of h5 is now decisive.}) (12… Be4 $2 13. f3 Bd5 14. c4 $18
{and the poor bishop get’s trapped on d5 as well.}) 13. h5 $6 Be4 14. f3 Qxc3 (
14… Bd5 15. c4) 15. fxe4 Qxa1 16. h6 $1 $16) 7. Qxf3 c6 {Now d4 is
threatened.} 8. Ne2 $6 {Caruana plays a rare move. It has only been played by
Fedorchuk against Danielsen in Calcutta 2014. Again it seems as though
Carlsen’s opponents want to return the favor to Magnus to try and get him out
of the preparation he may have done in the off-beat variations he chooses. As
to the move itself: White has only one problem in the Scandinavian, Nc3 blocks
his c-pawn which in turn means that he cannot set up a pawn duo and control d5.
Another purpose of the move is to reroute the knight to a potentially better
square, from c3 the knight has no “forward” prospects.} (8. Be3 {is the more
logical main move:} e6 9. Bd3 Nbd7 10. O-O-O $5) 8… e6 9. g4 $5 {an
interesting approach to the position. In an ideal world White is contemplating
Bg2, 0-0, c4, Be3, Nf4, Rad1, Rfe1, g5 and d4-d5! OK, just dreaming…} Qd5 {
The return of the queen! Carlsen tries to make use of the few central
possibilities he has before it is too late and White has managed c2-c4 without
a nasty Bb4 check.} 10. Bg2 {White of course keeps the tension.} (10. Qxd5 $2
cxd5 $10 {renders White’s bishop pair useless and Black can start a minority
attack on the queen side. Also White has a weakened king side.}) 10… Nbd7 11.
Qg3 {Starting a cat and mouse game} (11. O-O $14 {is a more logical follow-up.}
Qxf3 (11… Bd6 $2 12. Qd3 $1 {Now this stronger discovered attack is possible,
Bg2 is protected.}) 12. Bxf3 $14) 11… Qc4 {Hmm, this Scandinavian queen has
made some career after all 😉 Nonetheless, she may remain a bit vulnerable
after all.} 12. Qb3 {Caruana’s strategy seems a bit meek to me.} (12. c3 {
trying to use the queen as a target later on was more ambitious.}) 12… Qxb3
$6 {Again Magnus the end game guru is taking a strategical risk (or maybe he is not ready to commit to a woman yet), and again it could be part of
his provocative attitude, keeping the disadvantage within reasonable borders
but trying to give the opponent the feeling that he has some advantage. And
indeed, Caruana starts to think and work hard to “make the best of it” but
loses the game in time trouble.} (12… Nb6 {keeping the tension and thereby
control of c4 was more logical.}) 13. axb3 {Now White has some activity along
the semi open a-file and has recaptured with a pawn towards the center,
increasing his influence there.} Bd6 14. c4 {A long awaited move, rendering
Blacks minor pieces less useful.} a6 15. Be3 (15. O-O {I would have had
trouble figuring out where to put my queen’s bishop and play this more
flexible move instead.}) 15… O-O-O 16. O-O-O {Let the middlegame begin!} Rhe8
{I’m not sure what the rook is doing here, I don’t think e6-e5 is an idea here
since it weakens the light squares.} (16… h5 17. Bf3 (17. g5 Ng8 {and the
knight gets a strong outpost on f5.}) 17… Nf8 {and Black may have introduced
some useful tension.}) 17. Ng3 {I’m also not sure what this knight is going to
do. Caruana probably meant it as prophylaxis against e6-e5 when White could
play Nf5.} (17. Kc2 {freeing up the first rank, protecting the b3 weakness and
keeping flexibility.} e5 $2 18. d5 $1 cxd5 19. g5 Nh5 20. Bxd5 $16) 17… Nf8 (
17… h6 {to cut out any g4-g5’s}) 18. Bf3 (18. g5) 18… Ng6 19. h4 {
Preventing Nh4.} Bf4 $6 {Black wants to break White’s bishop pair, but at the
cost of strengthening his center. Also it seems mistimed, because White now
has a nice forcing line.} 20. h5 Bxe3+ 21. fxe3 Ne7 22. e4 $6 {We, and me
certainly, can’t blame Caruana. He is playing the human stuff!} (22. h6 $1 $14
{and White starts nibbling at Black’s king side.}) 22… h6 {Black prevents h6.
} 23. e5 {It looks impressive what Caruana is doing, he wants to play his
knight to the outpost on d6. But as it turns out, Black has everything under
control and can play around and against that knight! White is actually going
to be a bit overextended.} Nh7 {Eyeing the nice g5 square from where the
knight will have a few functions to perform such as protecting f7.} 24. Ne4 Rf8
{sidestepping the fork.} 25. Nd6+ $6 {It turns out that the knight has trouble
maintaining itself here.} Kc7 $10 {Now the well known antidote with f7-f6,
nibbling at the support of Nd6, is threatened!} 26. Bg2 {The computer does not
care, but to me Caruana plays a bit too reactive and shows a bit too much of
attachment to his bishop (which has been a distinguishing factor for any
advantage he may have had). This bishop is not necessarily such a good piece
anymore. Looking at the king side, it may even be called a “bad” bishop. Black
should probably not trade a knight for it, so why not intice him to do so?} (
26. Kc2 {It’s an endgame, so let’s bring the king closer.} Ng5 27. Rhf1 $1 {
Rooks are stronger than bishops and should be brought into play sooner or
later!} Nxf3 $2 28. Rxf3 $14 {and White sets up nasty pressure on the f-file.})
26… Ng5 27. Rhf1 f6 $1 {True, e6 is now weakened, but how to attack it? With
Bh3 (tongue-in-cheek)?} 28. Kc2 (28. exf6 $2 Kxd6 29. fxe7 Kxe7 $15 {and Black
is enjoying the better minor piece.}) 28… fxe5 29. dxe5 {e5 on the other
hand is also not so easy to attack (yet).} Nc8 $1 {Attacking the intruder and
again striving for N v. B.} 30. c5 {Correct, but weakening d5 in the process.}
(30. Nxc8 $2 Rxf1 31. Rxf1 Kxc8 $15 {Note how Ng5 is protecting f7.}) 30… Ne7
{The knight returns.} 31. b4 $2 {A very human move to make but a mistake
putting the pawn on a vulnerable square, probably due to time pressure.} (31.
Kd2 Nd5 {and White does not have to take on d5.} 32. Bxd5 $2 cxd5 $15) (31. Ra1
) 31… Nd5 {Ai, a double attack against b4 and… e3!} 32. Bxd5 {White is
practically forced to exchange bishop for knight which, as mentioned earlier,
is in itself not so bad, but this particular capture brings about a very
favorable change in the Black pawn structure!} cxd5 $15 {All of a sudden Black
now has a protected passed pawn on d5, whereas White’s majority on the queen
side due to the doubled pawns represent no danger. On top of that, the c6
square has become available for the black king. Magnus got his chance and does
not let go anymore.} 33. b5 $6 {Trying to resolve his doubled pawns and make
his majority healthy again. But after the trade doesn’t Black have a double
attack with his new born king?!} (33. Kb3 {was a better try.}) 33… axb5 34.
Nxb5+ Kc6 35. Nd6 Nf3 {But he must have missed this counterattack against e5.}
(35… Kxc5 $4 36. Nxb7+ {This is why Caruana must have thought that b4-b5 was
still fine.}) (35… Rf3 $1 {with the threat of Rdf8 to take over the f-file,
was also very strong.} 36. Rxf3 Nxf3 37. Rf1 Nxe5 $17) 36. b4 Ra8 $1 {Magnus
shows great restraint. Before taking the pawn, he first activates his rook.} (
36… Nxe5 $2 37. Rfe1 $1 {attacking both Ne5 and e6.} Nf7 (37… Rf2+ 38. Kc3
Rf3+ 39. Kb2 Rf2+ 40. Kc3 Rf3+ $10) 38. b5+ Kc7 39. Nxf7 Rxf7 40. Rxe6 $14) 37.
Ra1 $2 {In time trouble it goes downhill for Caruana.} ({Toughest was the
difficult} 37. Nf5 Nxe5 (37… exf5 $2 38. Rxf3 $10) 38. Nxg7 Kd7 $17) 37…
Rxa1 38. Rxa1 Nxe5 39. Ra7 (39. Re1 Nf3 $1 {is the pointe.} 40. Rxe6 $4 Nd4+
$19) 39… Rb8 $17 {Black has a large advantage now and is practically winning
with his coordinated army and connected passed pawns.} (39… b6 {is also fine.
}) 40. Ra3 $2 {Typical time trouble move. After this mistake there is no more
doubt as to the outcome of the game.} (40. Kc3 {activating the king} Nxg4 41.
Kd3 {still provided a modicum of defensive possibilities.}) 40… b6 $19 {
Still battling against White’s “strong” structure.} 41. Ra7 (41. Kc3) 41…
bxc5 42. Ra6+ Kc7 43. bxc5 Nd7 44. Ra7+ Kc6 45. g5 Nxc5 46. Nf7 d4 47. Ne5+ Kd5
48. Nd7 d3+ 49. Kc1 Nxd7 50. Rxd7+ Ke4 {and Caruana resigned. A typical
Carlsen victory.} 0-1
[/pgn_compat]

Considering their head to head count and their last encounters in 2014, I don’t think that Caruana is going to hurt Carlsen during the Sinquefield Cup.

To be continued…