In a previous article Previewing The Sinquefield Cup (3): Can Caruana Beat Carlsen?, I discussed the likelyhood of Caruana beating Carlsen during the upcoming Sinquefield Cup. In this follow-up I want to take a look at the number four on the starting list, Hikaru Nakamura.

Statistics

In the database I found 25 encounters in classical chess between Magnus Carlsen and Hikaru Nakamura. In the overall head to head Nakamura is clearly the underdog, sofar he scores only 30%. What’s more, he has yet to beat Carlsen in a classical game, whereas Carlsen has beaten Nakamura no less then ten times!

Last Encounter

The last encounter in a classical game between the two was during the Gashimov Memorial earlier this year. I will annotate the game below.

Click on the moves below to start playing and show a chess board:

[pgn_compat]
[Event “Gashimov Memorial-A”]
[Site “Shamkir”]
[Date “2014.04.27”]
[Round “7”]
[White “Nakamura, Hikaru”]
[Black “Carlsen, Magnus”]
[Result “0-1”]
[ECO “E20”]
[WhiteElo “2772”]
[BlackElo “2881”]
[Annotator “Waldemar Moes, Better Your Chess”]
[PlyCount “106”]
[EventDate “2014.04.20”]
[EventType “tourn”]
[EventRounds “10”]
[EventCountry “AZE”]
[EventCategory “22”]
[SourceDate “2014.04.30”]

1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. f3 c5 $5 {The fight has begun! It seems like
Carlsen is saying to Nakamura: Remember our game in Zurich 2014? You could not
convert a similar space advantage after having a huge advantage and even went
on to lose the game. Let’s see how you fare this time.} (4… d5 {is twice as
popular, aimed at preventing White from taking space and forming a broad pawn
center.}) 5. d5 {GAINING SPACE. The position now resembles a Benoni structure,
but with Black’s dark squared bishop on b4 instead of g7. In general Black
needs to play incisive against these structures where White gains some space
in the center, which explains why the King’s Indian and Benoni defenses are
frowned upon by some of the very top players.} O-O {Here or on the next move,
Black may decide to exchange on c3 to saddle White up with doubled pawns and
get an imbalanced game.} 6. e4 d6 7. Bd2 $6 {This is a bit of an insipid move,
but if nothing else, it dissuades Black from exchanging on c3 and (as in the
other games I discuss in this series), it seems that Carlsen’s opponents are
willing to play slightly off-beat moves as well to get Carlsen out of any
preparation he may have done in his sideline.} Nbd7 {White may have more space
and a broad pawn center, but Black has rapid development. Let’s see if and how
he puts that to use.} (7… Bxc3 $6 8. Bxc3 {and White does not have the
doubled pawns.}) 8. Nge2 Ne5 {Question: Speaking of quick development, what
does this move threaten?} 9. Ng3 {Whew! Just in time ;-)} exd5 {OK, the side
with an advantage in development should open up the position. That’s what
Carlsen does.} 10. cxd5 {Off course we can expect a world class grandmaster to
recapture the correct way: towards the center, not exchanging pieces and
keeping the e-file as closed as possible. Now however, b7-b5 becomes a theme.}
(10. Nxd5 $2 {When you have a space advantage it is normally not good to
exchange pieces:} Nxd5 11. cxd5 f5 $1 $15 {And by exchanging off Nf6 Black
immediately gets to activate Bc8 and Rf8 as well.}) (10. exd5 $2 {Opening up
the e-file like this with your king still in the middle is practically suicide.
} Re8 $17 {And in order to stave off the worst, White has to give up his right
to castle with Kf2.}) 10… Bd7 {Carlsen tried to open up the position in the
center, but Nakamura would not quite oblige. In return though he now has a
majority on the queen side and is preparing to make use of it. Other then that,
this move also finishes development. By the way, note that because of the
space disadvantage this bishop has only one square to go to.} (10… c4 $5 {
with the idea of revitalising the dark squared bishop with Bc5 is also
interesting.}) 11. a3 {Nakamura is daring Carlsen to take on c3 or otherwise
retreat his bishop.} (11. f4 $6 {Again because of the space disadvantage and
the new location of Bd7, Carlsen had to seriously reckon with this move:} Ng6
$15 {is fine though, since White is not ready to play e5 or f5 and has
weakened e4 in the process. Re8 is now a nasty threat.}) 11… Ba5 {Every
modern day Grandmaster normally values bishops over knights, but there was a
concrete reason as well, which in chess is always more important than general
rules of thumb.} (11… Bxc3 $6 {with the idea of eliminating a defender of b5
and immediately mobilizing the queen side pawn majority does not quite work
which means that it comes at too high a price (the dark squared bishop):} 12.
Bxc3 b5 13. Qd2 {Preventive medicine against b5-b4 and preparing to  attack on
the newly conquered dark squares with such moves as Qg5 or even take over on
the queen side with the blocking Ba5.} a5 14. a4 b4 (14… bxa4 15. Be2 $14)
15. Bxe5 dxe5 16. b3 $14 {and White has a clear strategic advantage: he has
managed to block Black’s majority, Black has two weak pawns on c5 and e5,
White can attack along the half open d-file and he has a protected passed pawn
on d5. Black does not have much in return. He can possibly get his knight to
d6 and block from there and try for counterplay on the dark squares, but
White’s advantages are more structural and tangible.}) 12. Be2 {White has to
finish development sooner or later.} b5 $1 {Wow, is that possible? Isn’t that
square controlled twice by White?} 13. O-O {Nakamura wisely tries to finish
the opening.} (13. Nxb5 $2 Bxb5 14. Bxb5 (14. Bxa5 $4 Qxa5+ $19 {and Black
protects Bb5}) 14… c4 $1 {The justification, threatening Qb6 as well as Nd3+
making use of White’s inferior development and king safety (compare the note
to Black’s 7th move):} 15. b4 $8 (15. O-O $4 Qb6+ $19 {winning the bishop.})
15… cxb3 {and White’s position remains shaky, he still can’t castle.} (15…
Nd3+ 16. Ke2 $1 Bb6 17. Bxc4 {and White is remarkably safe.} Nf2 18. Qb3 Nxh1
19. Rxh1 $14 {Nonetheless, these lines must be very difficult to navigate for
the players.})) (13. Bxb5 $4 Bxc3 {Eliminating the defender of Bb5} 14. Bxd7
Bxd2+ 15. Qxd2 Qxd7 $19 {and Black remains a piece up.}) 13… c4 $6 {This
move threatens a check on the a7-g1 diagonal, but does give up control of d4.
There were other more flexible moves involving other, still inactive army
units:} (13… a6) (13… Rb8) 14. Be3 $6 {This move does prevent a check but
also allows for a favorable trade of dark squared bishops.} (14. Kh1) 14… Bb6
{Why is this a good move? It comes with tempo, it paves the way for the a-pawn
(a space and hence mobility issue), if the dark squared bishops get exchanged,
White may regret that he put his center pawns on light squares.} 15. Qd2 {A
multifunctional move: it protects Be3, gives the queen a function and connects
the rooks. White has finally finished the opening. Now, let’s give Black one
more move and then determine the outcome off the opening battle.} (15. Bxb6 $6
{would be an amateurish and reactive way to meet the attack on Be3. By trading
(releasing the tension between Bb6 and Be3) White helps Black by inviting the
Black queen to come forward (develop) and that with check.} Qxb6+ 16. Kh1 a5 {
and Black has a fine game.}) 15… Rb8 $6 {After this move the game remains
balanced and the outcome of the opening stage is even, but I find this an
awkward move. All three pieces, Rb8, Bb6 and Qd8 seem to be competing for the
same deployment and could be in each others way. Probably Carlsen thought the
same, but isn’t that his style, to mix it up a bit? Haven’t we seen him play
these slightly less “classical” or obvious moves before? Is he starting to put
thoughts into his opponents head again? Let me quote D.T. Max from an
interview with Carlsen that appeared in the New Yorker, March 2011: “Carlsen
said that, for him, great chess playing is less the scientific search for the
best approaches than psychological warfare with some little tricks.”} (15…
a5 {Would be a good way for Black to continue his middle game. Funnily enough,
he had already finished his opening before White ;-)}) 16. Nd1 $6 {Even world
class grandmasters put knights on the rim, but in these types of positions it
is more common, the position is still quite closed and White may have the time
to do this. That said, what is the concrete idea of this move? It may be that
White wants to exchange Be3 and then transfer this knight via e3 to f5 from
where it could be replaced with the other knight if Black plays Bd7xf5. But
then what? What does that achieve? It will have developed Black’s queen to b6,
lost a few tempi and will have exchanged more pieces. Also Black may play
g7-g6 at some point and simply deny white that square. But what’s more,
something has changed in the position: pawn e4 is less protected, taking the
sting out of a possible f3-f4.} (16. f4 {White is now much better prepared to
play this move.} Ng6 (16… Neg4 $2 17. Bd4 $1 $14 {threatening h3 and making
use of d4.}) 17. Nh5 {and White may try to develop an initiative on the king
side.}) 16… Bc8 $6 {The players exchange “half” moves.} (16… h5 $1 $15 {A
well-known device to play against g3/g6 or b3/b6 knights is to push one’s rook
pawn. Making use of White’s temporary uncoordinated clutter of pieces, this
would have been a nice way for Carlsen to pursue the initiative.} 17. h4 {is
an ugly move to make.} (17. f4 $2 {would no longer be possible, even though it
has not been Nakamura’s intention all along.} Neg4 18. Bxg4 (18. Bd4 $2 h4 19.
Nh1 Nxe4) 18… Bxg4 {and White’s best is to return and protect e4…} 19. Nc3
Re8 $17) (17. Nh1 {was probably not Nakamura’s intention.})) 17. Kh1 {This
prepares the exchange on b6, after which Ne3 would not be pinned.} Nfd7 $6 {So
that was Carlsen’s intention, to also retreat a knight in the hopes of getting
to a better square, but it falls short one tempo.} (17… Re8 18. Bxb6 Qxb6 19.
Ne3 g6 20. b3 {or something to that nature must have been Nakamura’s intention.
}) 18. f4 $1 {With Nf6 no longer attacking e4 and before jumping to c5,
Nakamura quickly changes tack.} (18. Nf5 Nc5 {with the dual threat of Nb3/d3.})
(18. Bxb6 Qxb6 19. Ne3 Nc5 {and Black’s attack on d3 looks stronger than
White’s on f5.}) 18… Ng6 19. Bxb6 $1 {White has some strategic initiative
now and forces to Black to recapture in the least desirable way, making the
earlier deviced plan more feasible.} Rxb6 $8 (19… Qxb6 $2 {The queen should
keep control of f6, that’s the thing.} 20. f5 Nge5 21. f6 Nxf6 22. Rxf6 $1 $18
{and for this demolishment White has his pieces on the right squares.}) (19…
Nxb6 $2 {is similar:} 20. f5 Ne5 21. f6 $16 {with a dangerous attack.}) 20. Ne3
$6 {OK, the knight is on e3 now.} (20. a4 $1 {trying to activate the rook
seemed more precise.}) 20… Nc5 {Carlsen has also managed to reroute his
knight.} 21. Bd1 {The best way to contain Nc5, but putting a bishop on the rim,
may also be dim. It will take this piece a number of moves before it moves to
c2 and connects the rooks again. For the moment however, White threatens f5
again!} (21. f5 $2 Nb3 $15) 21… Nd3 $2 {A bold move which attacks f4, but
loosens control of a4. The knight still feels a bit lonely in it’s endeavours.}
(21… f6 {to stop the white pawn from ever going to f6 was a solid try.}) 22.
f5 {Allowing the black knights some squares.} (22. a4 $1 {Attacking Black’s
structure and introducing some useful tension along the a-file for the rook on
a1.} a6 (22… Ngxf4 $2 23. axb5 Rxb5 24. Nxc4 $16 {and Blacks knights lack
support and hang in the balance.}) (22… Ndxf4 $2 23. axb5 Rxb5 24. Ngf5 {and
White now does in fact have a strong initiative on the king side (Ng6 is
blocking g7-g6 and the strong centralizing Qd4 is threatened).}) 23. Nh5 $14)
22… Ngf4 23. a4 a6 24. Ng4 {Threatening to take on f4! Black faces a bit of
a crisis now.} h5 $8 {As so often a counter attack is the solution.} 25. Nf2 {
Nakamura chooses the positional approach. If he can get rid of the Black
knights in which so much time and energy was invested, then what remains of
Black’s position?} (25. Rxf4 $5 {is the more dynamic try:} Nxf4 (25… hxg4 26.
Rxg4 $14) 26. Nh6+ $1 gxh6 27. Qxf4 $14 {and the Black king is feeling really
uneasy:} Qg5 28. Qf2 Rb7 29. Nxh5) 25… Qf6 {Finally the queen gets some
influence also.} (25… Nxf2+ 26. Qxf2 h4 27. Qxf4 hxg3 28. Qxg3 $14 {and
White has a solid pawn plus advantage, especially since there is no knight
anymore that can sit on e5.}) 26. Nxd3 $6 {Not the strongest continuation.
Nakamura must have been extremely attracted to the ensuing possible
complications, but objectively they are fine for Black and Carlsen always
smells it when something is fishy.} ({Perfectly possible was:} 26. Nxh5 Nxh5
27. Nxd3 cxd3 28. a5 $1 {maybe Nakamura missed this in-between move} (28. Bxh5
$2 bxa4) 28… Rb7 29. Bxh5 $14) 26… Nxd3 27. Qe3 $1 {A superb bit of
calculation by Nakamura nonetheless. Hitting Rb6 and sidestepping a vis-a-vis
after Qb2.} (27. a5 {no longer works:} Rb7 28. Nxh5 Qxb2 $10 {and yummie + a
double attack on Ra1 and Qd2 while keeping g7 defended! Queens…} 29. Qe3 Qxa1
30. f6 Qc1 $1) 27… Rb7 28. Nxh5 Qh6 $1 {But Carlsen is no slouch either, he
does not fall for it (and maybe he did not even bother calculation it,
trusting Nakamura and trying to get ahead on the clock)!} (28… Qxb2 $2 {now
this does not work:} 29. f6 $1 $18 Qxa1 30. fxg7 {with the deadly threat of
Qh6-h8 mate. Note how Bd1 is protected.} Qc1 31. Nf6+ $1 {This is the
difference.} Kxg7 32. Qg3+ Kh6 33. Qh4+ Kg6 34. Qh5+ Kg7 35. Qh7#) 29. Qxh6
gxh6 {So, the smoke has cleared, but how to evaluate this endgame? Well, let’s
weigh it up: in favor of White: he has an extra pawn and Black’s king is less
safe (the combination of f6, Nh5, Rf1 and the missing g-pawn may still
represent some danger). In favor of Black: He has an octopus on d3, the
technically better bishop and a mobile pawn majority on the queen side – note
that White’s pawn majority in the center is useless. In short: Black is by no
means worse and concretely he is threatening to take on b2. It seems that
Magnus has done it again and can grind out an end game! Can Nakamura display
the necessary amount of flexibility to adjust to the new situation?} 30. axb5
axb5 31. Bc2 $5 {The first sign that Nakamura had not completely adjusted to
the new situation yet. The strong and creative player that he is and with time
trouble starting to roar it’s ugly head, he is still intent on finding a way
to attack black’s weak king, even without queens! Note that the bishop move
intends to lure the knight away, connects the rooks and is aiming at the king
side along the b1-h7 diagonal where White may decide to jettison some pawns,
in order to open up that diagonal.} (31. Rb1 {protecting b2, preparing b4 and/
or Bc2 was best.}) 31… Ne5 $2 {Probably sensing that Nakamura wants him to
take on b2 or otherwise take his beautiful knight, Magnus quickly plays on
instinct, but surrenders a tempo that White can use to shore up his poition.
Is Nakamura cool headed enough to find the best moves in time trouble?} (31…
Nxb2 32. Rf3 {may have been Nakamura’s intention:} b4 33. Rg3+ Kh7 $4 (33…
Kh8 34. Ra6 Rd7 $10) 34. Ra6 $1 f6 (34… Rd7 35. Nf6+ $18) 35. Rxd6 $18 {and
White’s strategy succeeds.}) 32. Ra6 {In time trouble most players tend to
play actively.} Rd8 33. Ng3 $6 (33. Kg1 $1 $14 {In retrospect it is easy to
say that black pawn promotion motives are of course enhanced by the weakness
of White’s back rank, but this is a very difficult move to find in time
trouble. Still, nothing wrong with White’s position after the text move.})
33… Rb8 {attacking Ra6} 34. Ra7 b4 {Here they go… very nasty to defend
against them when in time trouble. Is Black going c3 or b3? What to play?} 35.
Ne2 $6 {“Let’s bring the knigh closer, can’t be bad.”} Bd7 {“Hmm, maybe it was
better to play Rb1 on the previous move, after c4-c3 this bishop is going to
hit something on e2 or f1 from b5.”} 36. Rfa1 $6 {“Quickly, let’s move the
rook off that diagonal”. The rooks defend better against a possible free pawn
when they are connected on the first rank.} (36. Rb1 $10) (36. Nd4 $10 {
stopping Bb5.}) 36… Bb5 $1 $15 37. h3 {To answer c3 with Nd4} Rdc8 $1 {But
Carlsen keeps the pressure on. Note how he first brings all his forces into
active positions before playing a pawn break. The threat is stronger than the
execution. Now Nakamura has to think again: how does this rook move change b3
or c3?} (37… c3 38. Nd4 cxb2 39. Rb1 b3 40. Bxb3 Rdc8 $2 41. Rxb2 Rc1+ 42.
Kh2 {and the White king finds shelter.}) 38. Kh2 $2 {And Nakamura goes astray..
. The king was already taken care of by h2-h3, now he should play the rook
move that he needs after both c4-c3 and b4-b3.} (38. Nd4 $2 {This is only good
after c4-c3.} b3 $1 {Now that White no longer controls c3 with his knight,
Black plays the other pawn!} 39. Bb1 (39. Bd1 c3 40. bxc3 b2 41. Rb1 Bd3 $19)
39… c3 40. bxc3 b2 41. R1a5 Bd3 $19) (38. Rb1 {It is quite possible that
Nakamura was afraid of this long and complicated line:} c3 (38… b3 39. Bd1
$10 {and c3 is well controlled.}) 39. Nd4 b3 $1 (39… cxb2 40. Rxb2) 40. Nxb3
Bd3 41. Bxd3 Nxd3 42. bxc3 Rxc3 {attacking the pinned knight!} 43. Ra3 Nc5 {
and again!} 44. e5 $1 {but there is this absolutely crazy and inhuman line
with which White can fight on.} dxe5 (44… Rcxb3 45. Rbxb3 Rxb3 46. Ra8+ Kg7
47. e6 Kf6 48. Rf8 {and a Black win is problematic..}) 45. d6 Kf8 46. Nc1 $1 {
Wow, a discovered attack on both rooks!} Rxh3+ $1 {A desperado!} (46… Rxb1 $2
47. Rxc3 $10) 47. Rxh3 Rxb1 48. Rc3 Nb7 $15 {and Black is on top, but a draw
is quite likely. All of this is of course impossible to see in time trouble,
let alone when you have enough time on the clock…}) 38… c3 $1 $17 {Now
Black just comes out on top.} 39. Nd4 cxb2 40. Rb1 {For the moment Nd4 is
protecting Bc2 right? But…} Rc4 $1 {This is how the rook move had changed
the position! Black attacks the defender of Bc2.} 41. Nxb5 Rxc2 {Now White is
faced with the double attack of Rxb5 and Nf3-d2.} 42. Nd4 Rd2 $2 {This move
endangers the win. As Carlsen said after the game, he was following his
instincts and never even looked at b4-b3.} (42… b3 $1 $19 {is quite an easy
win.}) 43. Nc6 $1 Re8 44. Ra4 $2 {The losing move really, it allows Black a
tempo to activate his knight and attack e4 in the process.} (44. Nxe5 $1 {
exchange that beast!} Rxe5 45. Ra2 Rxe4 46. Raxb2 Rxb2 47. Rxb2 Kg7 $15 {and
if this is winning, Black still has to show a lot of technique.}) 44… Nd3 $19
{The knight returns to it’s dominant position and e4 is lost.} 45. Nxb4 {This
of course was the point of Ra4, but the knight is badly placed here and b2 is
also still on the board.} Nf2 $1 {No exchanging the knights of course!} 46. Ra2
Nd1 {Only for the exchange will you eliminate my free pawn!} 47. Rxd1 Rxd1 48.
Rxb2 Rxe4 {Compared to the single rook endgame, being the exchange up clearly
helps Black ;-)} 49. Nc6 Kg7 50. f6+ Kxf6 51. Rf2+ Kg6 52. Nd8 Re8 $1 {0-1 A
nice trick to finish the game, and here Nakamura resigned due to:} 53. Nxf7
Rxd5 {and White’s knight is trapped.} 0-1

[/pgn_compat]

Considering their head to head count and and the fact that Carlsen seems a bit of an Angstgegner for Nakamura, I don’t think it is likely that the American is going to be a serious threat yet to Carlsen during the Sinquefield Cup. On the other hand, there is a first time for everything, isn’t there?

To be continued…